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2025年，諾貝爾經濟學獎頒給了喬爾·莫基爾（Joel Mokyr）、菲利普·阿吉翁（Philippe Aghion）與彼得·郝伊特（Peter Howitt），表彰他們對「創新驅動的經濟成長」的傑出研究。這三位學者的研究不僅深化了我們對「創造性破壞」（Creative Destruction）的理解，更為AI經濟的未來提供了重要參考。本文將探討破壞性創新的經濟學意涵，並結合AI技術的發展，分析其對未來經濟的潛在影響。

一、破壞性創新的經濟學基礎

1. 創造性破壞的核心概念

「創造性破壞」是奧地利經濟學家熊彼得（Joseph Schumpeter）提出的經典概念，指的是新技術、新產品或新產業的出現，取代舊有的技術與產業結構。這一過程雖然造成短期的經濟與社會動盪，但長期來看，卻是驅動經濟成長的核心動力。

阿吉翁與郝伊特於1992年發表的數學模型，進一步將創造性破壞精確化，闡明新產品的出現如何淘汰舊產品，並帶動經濟的持續成長。他們的理論指出，經濟成長的本質，不僅來自於資本或勞動力的累積，更來自於技術進步與創新的不斷迭代。

2. 莫基爾的歷史觀點

莫基爾以經濟史的角度，解析了工業革命如何成為經濟成長的轉折點。他提出，技術進步的關鍵在於兩種知識的互動：

●處方性知識（Prescriptive Knowledge）：關於「如何做」的實務技術，例如設計圖與操作指南。

●命題性知識（Propositional Knowledge）：關於「為什麼可以做」的科學原理，例如技術背後的理論基礎。

莫基爾強調，當社會能夠有效結合科學研究與實務技術，並建立鼓勵創新與知識交流的開放環境，經濟成長就能從短暫的繁榮轉變為持續的「新常態」。

⚫得獎者與貢獻

1.喬爾·莫基爾（Joel Mokyr）

○背景：美國與以色列雙重國籍，目前任職於美國西北大學，專注於經濟史與技術進步的研究。

○貢獻：莫基爾的研究揭示了持續經濟成長的歷史條件，特別是工業革命以來的「冰球桿曲線」，即長期經濟停滯後的快速增長。他提出，**處方性知識（如何做）與命題性知識（為什麼做）**的相互作用，是促進技術進步與經濟成長的關鍵。

2.菲利普·阿吉翁（Philippe Aghion）與彼得·郝伊特（Peter Howitt）

○背景：

-阿吉翁：法國籍學者，現任教於法國法蘭西學院、歐洲工商管理學院，以及英國倫敦政經學院。

-郝伊特：加拿大籍學者，目前在美國布朗大學擔任教授。

○貢獻：兩人於1992年提出了一個以「創造性破壞」為核心的理論模型，解釋了新產品如何淘汰舊產品，進而推動經濟成長。他們的工作拓展了熊彼得（Joseph Schumpeter）提出的「創造性破壞」概念，並用數學模型予以精確描述。

二、AI經濟的未來：創造性破壞的延伸

1. AI：新一代的工業革命

AI（人工智慧）被視為當前經濟中的一場「新工業革命」。如同蒸汽機和電力技術在過去改變經濟結構一樣，AI正以全方位的方式，重塑勞動力市場、企業運營模式與整體經濟效率。

（1）AI的經濟優勢

●生產力提升： AI能夠透過自動化流程與智能化決策，顯著提高生產效率。例如，AI在醫療、金融與製造業的應用，已經大幅縮短了工作流程並降低成本。

●市場創新： AI驅動的新產品與服務（如智慧家居、無人駕駛車輛）正在創造全新的市場機會。

（2）AI的經濟挑戰

●失業風險： 如同以往的技術變革，AI的自動化可能取代部分勞動力，特別是重複性、低技能的工作，導致結構性失業問題。

●經濟不平等： AI創新可能集中在少數科技巨頭與高技能勞動者手中，進一步擴大貧富差距。

●倫理與政策議題： AI的快速發展伴隨著隱私、偏見與數據安全等挑戰，需由政策制定者加以規範。

2. 創造性破壞與AI的互動

AI技術的發展正是創造性破壞在當代的具體展現。AI的應用雖然能帶來整體經濟的成長，但也不可避免地淘汰舊產業。例如：

●傳統汽車產業vs.電動車與自動駕駛：傳統汽車產業的巨頭因電動車技術而面臨巨大壓力，日本汽車產業的保守態度正是這一現象的縮影。

●零售業vs.電子商務： 電商平台利用AI技術提升效率與消費者體驗，對傳統零售業形成了顛覆性挑戰。

三、政策啟示：如何應對AI經濟的挑戰

1. 鼓勵創新，避免阻礙

政府應制定政策，支持AI等新技術的研發與應用，並營造有利於創新的市場環境。同時，應避免過度限制，阻礙新興產業的發展。

2. 緩解創新帶來的負面影響

創造性破壞雖然推動經濟成長，但其伴隨的社會成本不容忽視：

●失業問題：政府應加強職業培訓與再教育，幫助受影響的勞動者適應新經濟形態。

●社會安全網：加強社會福利措施，緩解創新帶來的短期痛苦，避免出現「贏者通吃」的局面。

3. 推動教育與基礎建設

AI技術的普及需要長期投入於教育與基礎建設。從學術研究到產業應用，政府應鼓勵跨領域合作，為AI的發展提供良好的土壤。

四、結語：AI經濟的未來願景

創造性破壞的經濟學告訴我們，技術創新是經濟成長的核心動力，但其過程並非一帆風順，而是充滿挑戰。在AI技術蓬勃發展的時代，如何平衡創新與社會福祉，將成為未來經濟政策的關鍵。

2025年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主的研究，提醒我們技術進步背後的深層機制與歷史規律。AI作為新一代的破壞性創新，將繼續改變世界的經濟與社會結構。我們應以開放與積極的態度迎接這場革命，並以智慧與遠見，引領人類走向更繁榮的未來。

Hello everyone! I'm Alex, and today I'm going to share a great article with you.

Disruptive Innovation: The Core of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics and an Analysis of the Future of the AI Economy

In 2025, the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt in recognition of their outstanding research on "innovation - driven economic growth." The work of these three scholars not only deepens our understanding of "Creative Destruction" but also provides a crucial frame of reference for the future of the AI economy. This article will explore the economic implications of disruptive innovation and, by integrating the development of AI technology, analyze its potential impact on the future economy.

Ⅰ. The Economic Foundations of Disruptive Innovation

1. The Core Concept of Creative Destruction

"Creative Destruction" is a classic concept proposed by the Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter. It refers to the process by which new technologies, new products, or new industries emerge, replacing old technological and industrial structures. While this process causes short - term economic and social turmoil, in the long run, it is the core engine driving economic growth.

The mathematical model published by Aghion and Howitt in 1992 further refined the concept of creative destruction, clarifying how the emergence of new products renders old ones obsolete and drives sustained economic growth. Their theory posits that the essence of economic growth stems not merely from the accumulation of capital or labor, but more fundamentally from the continuous iteration of technological progress and innovation.

2. Mokyr's Historical Perspective

From the perspective of economic history, Mokyr analyzed how the Industrial Revolution served as a turning point for economic growth. He proposed that the key to technological progress lies in the interaction between two types of knowledge:

●Prescriptive Knowledge: Practical, "how - to" knowledge, such as blueprints and operational manuals.

●Propositional Knowledge: Scientific principles concerning "why it works," such as the theoretical foundations behind a technology.

Mokyr emphasizes that when a society can effectively integrate scientific research with practical techniques and establish an open environment that encourages innovation and knowledge exchange, economic growth can transition from fleeting prosperity to a sustained "new normal."

⚫Laureates and Contributions

1. Joel Mokyr

○Background: A dual citizen of the United States and Israel, currently a professor at Northwestern University in the U.S., focusing on economic history and technological progress.

○Contribution: Mokyr's research reveals the historical conditions for sustained economic growth, particularly the "hockey - stick curve" since the Industrial Revolution — a period of rapid growth following long - term economic stagnation. He proposed that the interplay between prescriptive knowledge (the "how") and propositional knowledge (the "why") is crucial for fostering technological progress and economic growth.

2. Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt

○Background:

-Aghion: A French scholar, currently teaching at the Collège de France, INSEAD, and the London School of Economics and Political Science.

-Howitt: A Canadian scholar, currently a professor at Brown University in the U.S.

○Contribution: In 1992, the pair proposed a theoretical model centered on "creative destruction" to explain how new products displace old ones, thereby driving economic growth. Their work expanded upon the concept of "creative destruction" introduced by Joseph Schumpeter, providing a precise description using a mathematical model.

Ⅱ. The Future of the AI Economy: An Extension of Creative Destruction

1. AI: The New Industrial Revolution

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is regarded as a "new industrial revolution" in the current economy. Just as the steam engine and electricity transformed economic structures in the past, AI is reshaping the labor market, corporate operational models, and overall economic efficiency in a comprehensive manner.

(1) The Economic Advantages of AI

●Productivity Enhancement: AI can significantly boost production efficiency through process automation and intelligent decision - making. For example, AI applications in healthcare, finance, and manufacturing have already substantially shortened workflows and reduced costs.

●Market Innovation: New products and services driven by AI (such as smart homes and autonomous vehicles) are creating entirely new market opportunities.

(2) The Economic Challenges of AI

●Risk of Unemployment: Like previous technological shifts, AI - driven automation may replace certain segments of the workforce, particularly those in repetitive, low - skill jobs, leading to structural unemployment.

●Economic Inequality: The benefits of AI innovation may be concentrated in the hands of a few tech giants and high - skilled workers, further widening the wealth gap.

●Ethical and Policy Issues: The rapid development of AI is accompanied by challenges related to privacy, bias, and data security, which require regulation by policymakers.

2. The Interaction Between Creative Destruction and AI

The development of AI technology is a contemporary manifestation of creative destruction. While AI applications can bring about overall economic growth, they inevitably render old industries obsolete. For example:

●Traditional Automotive Industry vs. Electric Vehicles and Autonomous Driving: Giants of the traditional auto industry are facing immense pressure from electric vehicle technology. The conservative stance of the Japanese automotive industry is a microcosm of this phenomenon.

●Retail vs. E - commerce: E - commerce platforms leverage AI to enhance efficiency and consumer experience, posing a disruptive challenge to the traditional retail sector.

Ⅲ. Policy Implications: How to Address the Challenges of the AI Economy

1. Encourage Innovation, Avoid Obstruction

Governments should formulate policies that support the research, development, and application of new technologies like AI, and cultivate a market environment conducive to innovation. At the same time, they should avoid excessive restrictions that could hinder the growth of emerging industries.

2. Mitigate the Negative Impacts of Innovation

Although creative destruction drives economic growth, its associated social costs cannot be ignored:

●Unemployment Issues: Governments should strengthen vocational training and re - education programs to help affected workers adapt to the new economic landscape.

●Social Safety Net: Strengthening social welfare measures can alleviate the short - term pain caused by innovation and prevent a "winner - take - all" scenario.

3. Promote Education and Infrastructure

The widespread adoption of AI technology requires long - term investment in education and infrastructure. From academic research to industrial application, governments should encourage cross - disciplinary collaboration to provide fertile ground for AI's development.

Ⅳ. Conclusion: A Future Vision for the AI Economy

The economics of creative destruction teaches us that technological innovation is the core driver of economic growth, but the process is not smooth and is fraught with challenges. In an era of burgeoning AI technology, how to balance innovation with social welfare will be a key challenge for future economic policy.

The research of the 2025 Nobel laureates in economics reminds us of the deep mechanisms and historical patterns behind technological progress. As the next generation of disruptive innovation, AI will continue to transform the world's economic and social structures. We must embrace this revolution with an open and proactive attitude, and with wisdom and foresight, guide humanity toward a more prosperous future.